A recent study has determined that investors dealing with U.S. Treasury securities may want to check the calendar when investing. The report notes the best time to invest in these securities is when the weather changes to springtime.
The data showed that October was the best month where monthly returns peaked on the securities and dropped by as much as 80 basis points over the winter months leading up to the lowest point in April. The cause of the drop is suggested to be what researchers describe as seasonal depression or better know as SAD (seasonal affective disorder).
“Maybe it seems like a small number, but in the world of Treasuries, that kind of a systematic difference is huge,” study co-author Lisa Kramer, an associate professor at the University of Toronto Mississauga was quoted as saying in a press statement. She continues, “Maybe they’re not clinically-depressed and feeling the impulse to crawl back into bed but my own research suggests that they’re not as buoyant during some seasons of the year and it might not be very noticeable to an individual, but there do seem to be really broad effects.”
Kramer penned the research study on SAD along with Professor Mark Kamstra who is with York University’s Schulich School of Business. Also part of the research was Professor Maurice Levi of the Sauder School of Business at the University of British Columbia. Kramer had previously penned a 2011 paper titled “This Is Your Portfolio On Winter” describing the risks to those suffering from the SAD depression.